Summary
Following the formation of the new coalition Government in May 2010, 'Examination of the Forecasts Prepared by the Interim Office for Budget Responsibility for the Emergency Budget 2010' (HC 142) reports on the Chancellor's launch of the interim Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to make independent assessments of the public finances and the economy.
To reflect the interim arrangements, the Comptroller and Auditor General was requested to undertake an examination to consider whether key economic and fiscal assumptions underpinning the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts were independently arrived at.
Evidence gathered for this report includes:
- A written representation from Sir Alan Budd, Chair of the Budget Responsibility Committee.
- ยท Interviews with key individuals:
- The three members of the Budget Responsibility Committee.
- Secretariat of the interim Office for Budget Responsibility members.
- Senior HM Treasury officials.
- The Pre-Budget forecast, 14 June 2010.
The Comptroller and Auditor General concludes that the key economic and fiscal assumptions underpinning the OBR forecasts have been independently arrived at.
The Office for Budget Responsibility was formed in May 2010 to make an independent assessment of the public finances and the economy for each Budget and Pre-Budget Report. It is being chaired, on an interim basis, by respected financial expert Sir Alan Budd.
This report differs from previous requests to examine the reasonableness and caution of specific assumptions and includes no review of the forecast itself.
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